Pick a team, then simulate the tournament — or run 1000 sims for the odds. running…

★ Tournament Simulator

WORLD CUP 2026

Play out the groups + the full knockout bracket — or run 1000 simulations for every team's title odds.

Just for fun. Results use a simple strength model (Elo win-probability + Poisson goals), not real predictions — the same seed always reproduces the same run, so you can share it.

🤓 How does the simulator work?

Every team gets one strength rating (an Elo number from FIFA-ranking tiers). That's the only thing results are weighted by: each match turns the strength gap into a win chance, then rolls random goals around it. Stronger teams win more often — but upsets are baked in.

01 · STRENGTH
Elo rating

Each team gets a number — Argentina ~2090, Curaçao ~1560. Higher = stronger.

02 · WIN CHANCE
Elo → probability

The gap becomes a win chance. +400 ≈ 91%, level ≈ 50%.

03 · GOALS
Rolled (Poisson)

~2.6 goals shared by win chance, then each score is rolled at random. Favourites score more — usually.

04 · BRACKET
Groups → 🏆

Round-robin groups, top 2 + best-8 thirds, then the real knockout bracket to a champion.

⚔ Try it — pick any matchup
vs
Elo Elo
expected goals:

The same seed always reproduces the same run, so you can share it. It does not use current form, injuries, real squads, home advantage, or past meetings — it's a fun strength model, not a real prediction.

Group Stage

Top 2 from each group advance, plus the 8 best 3rd-placed teams → Round of 32.

Knockout Bracket

Title odds · 1000 sims

How far does your team go?

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